Montpelier, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

529
FXUS61 KBTV 031750
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1250 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for snowfall continue today and then again late tomorrow and
Thursday. Thursday`s snowfall will be from a clipper system that
moves across the region, dropping several inches of snowfall, then
leaves colder air and gusty northwesterly winds in its wake
Friday. Hazardous travel is possible, particularly for the
Thursday morning and evening commutes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1233 PM EST Tuesday...No big changes for the early
afternoon update. Scattered, light snow showers have largely
consolidated across much of northern New York aside from near
the International Border into a portion of north central
Vermont, mainly near I-89. A bit of an uptick in activity,
especially along the western slopes of the Greens, towards
evening is possible as Froude numbers lower back down a bit
below 1.

Previous discussion...Today continues to look similar to
yesterday with blocked flow and a shortwave moving through, plus
some additional moisture. Snow shower chances will gradually
decrease throughout the day as we become unblocked, but by then
some areas will have accumulated up to 1-3 inches of additional
snow. Most snow will fall at the higher elevations of the Green
Mountains, but about a trace to an inch of additional snow is
forecast elsewhere, including the Champlain Valley. Highs will
again struggle to reach into the mid 20s to lower 30s today, as
the clouds don`t appear to break up much before sunset. Apparent
temperatures will only reach the teens to mid 20s in
comparison.

Clouds decreasing should, provide a cooler night tonight with
projected lows in the teens and lower 20s and apparent temperatures
as low as the single digits to lower teens. Snow shower chances will
become isolated slight chance in the Greens and Northeast Kingdom,
however, clouds and precipitation chances will begin to resurge
again late tonight into early Wednesday morning from west to east as
our next clipper system approaches. This will result in additional
snowfall of about a trace to an inch in the Green Mountains and
Northeast Kingdom from lingering showers as well as a trace to a
half an inch for St. Lawrence County at the forefront of the
clipper.

Steady snowfall chances and cloud cover continue to increase
throughout the day tomorrow from west to east as a surface low
pressure moves eastward across the Great Lakes. This should spell
another chilly day for the forecast area with highs in the upper 20s
to lower 30s despite an increasing southerly wind with gusts 15-25
knots, and a Lake Wind Advisory may be needed for Lake Champlain.
These gusty winds will allow for apparent temperatures maxing out in
the mid teens to lower 20s. Snowfall during the day should amount to
only about 0.2-2.5 inches of fresh snow, with higher amounts west
and lower amounts east. More details about the clipper system
overall can be found in the short term section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 AM EST Tuesday...Snow will be ongoing across much of the
region at the onset of this period as a clipper system treks
eastward north of the Great Lakes. The surface low will push to the
east Wednesday night and Thursday, skirting the international border
and eventually toward northern Maine by Thursday evening. While snow
will be widespread, expect some shadowing on the northern side of
the Adirondacks due to strong south flow out ahead of the clipper.
Flow will gradually trend southwestward overnight, shifting the
downsloping region to the east side of the Adirondacks by Thursday
morning. These areas will still see accumulating snow overnight into
Thursday morning, but lesser amounts than elsewhere. The clipper
will move to our east Thursday afternoon/evening, shifting winds to
the west/northwest. Snow will become more focused in the favored
upslope areas of the western Adirondacks and Green Mountains, while
trending more showery in the wider valleys, especially southern
Champlain and lower CT Valleys due to downsloping. Lapse rates will
steepen as cold air moves in behind the departing clipper, leading
to some instability during the afternoon. This combined with some
enhanced moisture from flow off the Great Lakes means convective
showers will be possible, with moderate to perhaps even briefly
heavy snow at times. Through dinner time Thursday , expect snowfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches in the Champlain Valley and lower CT River
Valley, with 2 to 5 inches elsewhere. Summit levels will receive 5-8
inches. This snow could make for tricky commutes on Thursday,
especially in the afternoon should heavier snow showers develop.

The other concern will be gusty winds, both ahead of the clipper and
after it departs. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are likely Wednesday night
and Thursday, first out of the south, then switching to the
west/northwest Thursday afternoon. Although temperatures will be
near or even above freezing on Thursday, snow will be relatively
light in nature with SLRs remaining 15:1 or better. Even fairly
light snow accumulations combined with the gusty winds could create
blowing and drifting snow, heightening the potential for hazardous
travel.

The clipper and its associated upper trough will continue to shift
away to our east Thursday night, while ridging starts to build in
from the west. This will place us in west/northwest flow, keeping
the upslope going along the favored western slopes of the
Adirondacks and Greens. Additional light to moderate snowfall
amounts are likely, especially in the higher terrain. Gusty winds
will continue as well, ushering in a colder airmass. Lows are
expected to be 10F to 20F, but the breezy conditions will create
wind chills in the single digits, above and below zero, by early
Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 318 AM EST Tuesday...Ridging will continue to build eastward
into our region through late week. Upslope mountain snow showers
will likely persist at least through Friday morning, and winds will
remain breezy as well. Friday and Friday night will be quite chilly,
with highs only in the teens and 20s and overnight lows 5 to 15
above. Uncertainty increases as we head toward early next week, with
models flattening out the ridge and bringing a shortwave/low
pressure system zipping by in fast W/NW flow aloft.
Timing/placement/strength of this system varies, but expect there
will be some additional snow showers somewhere across the region
during the Sat-Mon timeframe. Have stayed close to the NBM for this
timeframe given inherent uncertainty this far out in the forecast.
We do seem to be in for a warming trend through the end of the
forecast period, with highs potentially in the mid/upper 30s by
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Primarily VFR conditions prevailing
across all terminals this afternoon, with the exception of
localized MVFR and IFR conditions associated with some snow
showers that continue across the region. KSLK, KMPV, and KEFK
have seen more of the variable flight conditions due these
showers. These showers will continue throughout the afternoon,
dwindling towards 00Z with VFR expected at all terminals for a
period of time. Winds will generally be out of the
west/northwest through most of the period, until 09Z through 12Z
when winds will become southerly ahead of a clipper system
approaching from the west. Steady precipitation will begin to
enter northern New York towards the end of the forecast period,
and continue to spread into Vermont after 18Z. Winds will become
increasingly breezy with this system as well, with gusts
between 15 and 25 knots at most terminals.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Definite SN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Storm
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Kremer